Future coastal hazard scenarios. A case study in NE Sicily (Italy).

Valeria Lo Presti (1), Attilio Sulli (1) & Fabrizio Antonioli (2)
(1) Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, University of Palermo. E-mail: valeria.lopresti@unipa.it (2) ENEA, Casaccia, Roma.

The coastal dynamics is the result of several causes that contribute to change the balance of beach deposits over time. The beach system is not always able to maintain coastal balance: the factors contributing to this phenomenon are to be found in both natural and anthropogenic spheres. In this context we present the analysis of marine geology and coastal geomorphological data of a sector between Rocca di Caprileone and Tindari (north-eastern Sicily) with the aim to: i) determine their onland-offshore area relationships, ii) analyze which natural features may contribute to coastal retreat, iii) present coastal hazard scenarios. Until fifty years ago the natural balance of this coastal area led to the formation of extensive sandy-pebbles beaches alternating with rocky coasts and pocket beach. The construction of harbours of Capo d'Orlando and Sant'Agata di Militello and of various coastal defense structures, and the regimentation of rivers (here called Fiumare), have permanently destabilized the natural conditions of the coasts. Currently the coastline retreat, started from about fifty years, is a unresolved problem and of increasing entity. According to VECTOR Project methodology (http://vector.conismamibi.it/), we calculate the prediction of sea level rise for 2050 and 2100 (IPCC, 2007; Rahmstorf, 2007).

coastal hazard, NE Sicily, uplift rate, canyon heads, relative sea level projections